East Bay Real Estate Market Update: What We’re Seeing in Contra Costa Right Now

clarka781
6 days ago
4 min read

I’m excited to share something new. This is the first in a monthly series focused specifically on what’s happening in our own backyard here in the East Bay. National headlines are helpful, but if you’ve been in real estate long enough, you already know the truth: real estate is not just local, it’s hyper-local.

For this first installment, I sat down with East Bay Realtor Cristina Linezo to talk through what we’re seeing right now in Contra Costa and the surrounding areas, and what buyers and sellers should actually be paying attention to as we move into 2026.

Here are the biggest takeaways.

1) The “Holiday Slowdown” Didn’t Really Happen

Typically, the holidays bring a noticeable pause in activity. Not this year.

Cristina shared that even with fewer homes on the market, buyers were still out touring properties and making moves, and she closed two transactions during the tail end of 2025. On the lending side, we saw the same thing. It was one of the busiest holiday seasons we’ve experienced, both for buyers getting pre-approved and for homeowners exploring refinance options.

Why the activity? A lot of it comes down to expectations. Many consumers were hearing consistent talk about rates coming down, and that created momentum. When buyers think conditions could improve, they start preparing, even if they’re not ready to move immediately.

2) Inventory Is Still Tight, But the Pipeline Is Warming Up

We’re early in the year, but Cristina pointed out something that matters.

She’s seeing signs that inventory is building behind the scenes. Inspectors and stagers are getting busier, which usually means listings are being prepped to hit the market soon. It may not show up on Zillow today, but the early signals suggest more homes are coming.

At the same time, buyers are coming out of the holiday lull and starting to ask the right questions again. Expectations. Strategy. Timing. Payment comfort. They’re getting prepared because they know they need to move quickly when the right home appears.

3) Multiple Offers Are Still Happening, But It’s Situation-Dependent

One of the most important themes Cristina highlighted is that competition in our market is not uniform.

Some homes are drawing multiple offers and moving quickly. Others are sitting longer, depending on price point, condition, location, and how the home is positioned. In other words, one neighborhood might feel like 2021, while another feels far more balanced.

This is exactly why a local lens matters. The broader “California market” narrative can be misleading, especially when our micro-markets behave differently than Southern California or even other parts of the Bay Area.

4) Appraisals Are Becoming a Bigger Variable

This is a big one.

On the mortgage side, we’re seeing more instances where appraisals come in lower than expected, sometimes dramatically. In the conversation, I shared a recent example where an appraisal on a home that was valued around $2 million not long ago initially came back at $1.65 million. We escalated and got it corrected, but even the revised value reflected a meaningful dip.

Christina made a great point about why this may be happening. With fewer recent sales in some pockets, appraisers may have to reach beyond the usual neighborhood boundaries to find legitimate comparable properties. When comps are limited, valuations can become less predictable.

The practical takeaway: appraisals are a real risk factor right now, and buyers need to understand how that impacts financing. Lenders lend on the appraised value, not the contract price.

5) Underwritten Pre-Approval Isn’t Optional in a Competitive Market

Christina and I were fully aligned here.

Even if a buyer is “just looking,” getting fully underwritten early is one of the smartest moves they can make. It strengthens the offer, reduces the risk of deal fallout, and increases confidence for everyone involved. Buyers, sellers, agents, and lenders.

And one more detail Cristina said that I loved, because it’s the truth: it’s not just about what someone is pre-approved for. You can be approved for a huge number, but what matters is the monthly payment and what feels sustainable. Nobody wants to win the offer and then feel house-poor.

6) Waiting for Rate Cuts Can Backfire

We talked about a common buyer mindset: “We’re going to wait until rates drop.”

Here’s the issue. Mortgage markets often react to expectations before the Fed even does anything. Lenders price changes based on what they anticipate. So waiting for a Fed cut doesn’t always translate into a better mortgage rate later.

Cristina added a second key layer: when rates do drop, more buyers tend to flood back into the market, which increases competition and can push prices up. In other words, buyers may save a little on rate but lose far more through bidding wars.

That’s why we always come back to a simple principle: if you find the right house and the payment works, you can refinance later if rates improve, but you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.

What This Means for East Bay Buyers and Sellers Right Now

If you’re buying:

Be prepared before the right listing hits
Focus on payment comfort, not just approval amounts
Build in an appraisal strategy, especially in thinner comp areas

If you’re selling:

Presentation and pricing matter more than ever
Buyer confidence is stronger when you help remove uncertainty up front, including inspections when possible

And for everyone: